• Posted January 14, 2025

U.S. Dementia Cases Expected to Double By 2060

Seniors’ risk of dementia is more than double what was previously thought.

The risk of developing dementia after age 55 is more than 42% among Americans, researchers reported in a study published Jan. 13 in the journal Nature Medicine.

That’s more than twice the risk reported by older studies.

“Our study results forecast a dramatic rise in the burden from dementia in the United States over the coming decades, with one in two Americans expected to experience cognitive difficulties after age 55,” senior investigator Dr. Josef Coresh, founding director of the Optimal Aging Institute at NYU Langone Health, said in a news release.

That dementia risk translates into an estimated half-million cases this year, and will increase to 1 million new cases annually by 2060, researchers stated.

This increase is directly tied to the aging of the U.S. population, along with a better understanding of other factors related to dementia -- genetics, high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, unhealthy diet, lack of exercise, and poor mental health.

For the study, researchers examined data from an ongoing study that has tracked heart health and brain function among nearly 16,000 participants as they age.

Between 1987 and 2020, more than 3,200 participants were diagnosed with dementia, researchers said.

That translates to an overall lifetime dementia risk of 42% -- 35% for men and 48% for women.

Women live longer than men on average, and thus are more likely to develop dementia during their lifetimes, researchers said.

Further, the lifetime risk of dementia increases to more than 50% for people older than 75.

Results also showed a higher risk among Black people, as well as in those who carry a mutation of the APOE4 gene that’s been previously linked to Alzheimer’s disease risk.

The APOE4 mutation is considered the single biggest genetic risk factor for developing late-onset Alzheimer’s, researchers noted.

These findings place added emphasis on the need for policies aimed at preventing dementia.

“The pending population boom in dementia cases poses significant challenges for health policymakers, in particular, who must refocus their efforts on strategies to minimize the severity of dementia cases, as well as plans to provide more health care services for those with dementia,” Coresh said.

For example, previous studies have shown that preventing heart disease and diabetes should also slow brain decline.

Loss of hearing among seniors has also been linked to an increased risk of dementia, researchers added. However, only a third of Americans with hearing loss use hearing aids.

More monitoring of hearing loss, and programs to make hearing aids more widely available, could help stem the coming tide of dementia, Coresh said.

Resources also are needed to address racial inequities in health care.

While dementia is expected to double among white people during the next four decades, it’s expected to triple among Black seniors, Coresh concluded. Efforts to improve childhood education and nutrition in Black communities now could stave off cognitive decline later.

More information

The National Institute on Aging has more about dementia.

SOURCE: NYU Langone Health, news release, Jan. 13, 2025