• Posted October 30, 2025

Obamacare Premiums Could Jump 30% as Subsidies Expire

Millions of Americans who buy their own health insurance could soon face steep premium increases, as temporary federal subsidies that helped lower costs for Obamacare plans are set to expire at year’s end.

Rates for plans sold through federal Obamacare marketplaces will rise, on average, by 30% next year, according to a new analysis from the health research group KFF. States that run their own marketplaces will see smaller, but still significant, average increases of 17%.

For most of the 20 million Americans who rely on Affordable Care Act (ACA) coverage, the biggest change will come when subsidies in place since 2021 end unless Congress extends them. 

The subsidies made health plans nearly free for some lower-income families and helped middle-income Americans qualify for help for the first time. (Middle income is about $64,000 a year for a single person.)

Without congressional action, prices shown on HealthCare.gov for 2026 coverage reflect a return to the original subsidy levels, meaning higher monthly costs for nearly everyone enrolled.

The expiration of these subsidies has become a major sticking point in ongoing budget negotiations in Washington, D.C., underlying a nearly monthlong government shutdown. 

Democrats have demanded an extension as part of any deal to fund the government, while Republican leaders say they won’t negotiate until the shutdown ends.

“There can be a lot of hair pulling and scratching, mud slinging, but the fundamental reality for most Americans is that, although it is an increase … that’s not the big issue,” Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, said at a news conference, as reported by The New York Times.

“The big issue is the fundamental flaws within the ACA, as they were created 15 years ago,” Oz said.

New price listings released this week offer a first look at what’s coming when open enrollment begins Saturday.

While some will still find plans for $50 a month or less, others will see their costs double.

Enrollment in ACA marketplaces has doubled since Congress approved the extra subsidies in 2021. Growth has been especially strong in Republican-controlled southern states such as Texas,Georgia and Mississippi, where sign-ups have tripled.

Several factors are driving the higher premiums: rising hospital and drug prices; greater use of GLP-1 drugs for diabetes and obesity; and insurers preparing for potential coverage losses if healthier, younger people drop their plans due to the higher costs.

For many Americans, those changes are already hitting home.

• In Oregon, 61-year-old retiree Sue Monahan said her monthly premium would jump from $439 to $1,059 if the subsidies expire.

• In California, clinical psychologist Belinda Stroud, 64, expects her costs to rise from $865 to nearly $2,000.

• And in Colorado, Randy Hertzman, 60, said losing the subsidies would turn his monthly premium from $300 to $1,900, adding that he and his wife may drop coverage altogether.

Roughly 27 million Americans remain uninsured, and the Congressional Budget Office estimates another 2 million could lose coverage next year if the subsidies end. 

About half of ACA enrollees have incomes close to the poverty line, meaning even modest increases of $25 to $85 a month could make coverage unaffordable.

“The group that is most price sensitive are younger and healthier consumers who might think they don’t need coverage,” David Merritt of the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association, told The Times. “That leaves older and sicker consumers in the marketplace, and that obviously complicates how they are covered and at what cost.”

More information

Preview 2026 plans before Nov. 1 at HealthCare.gov.

SOURCE: The New York Times, Oct. 29, 2025